The Quest for the next Kondratieff Cycle
Our world today is full of conflict, whether it is political, religious, corporate or just at a personal level. People from all creeds, colours, religious beliefs and walks of life are under huge social and economic pressures and there is a groundswell of opinion that there is a need for change.
Whilst the cataclysmic climatic and financial changes that we have seen in recent years are perhaps difficult to both predict and prepare for, there has been some predictive analysis work done in the area of business and innovation.
I believe however the real reason of all the ongoing conflicts right now are based around, what is known as the Kondratieff waves.
The Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff, after whom the Kondratieff waves are named, documented the phenomenon of Business Cycles resulting from basic innovations a phenomena that had been observed by countless writers through the ages, in 1925 in his thesis “The Major Economic Cycles”. At that time, Nikolai Kondratieff was working under the Stalin regime, which sentenced him to death for discovering the benefits of “Capitalistic Processes” in the economy. Stalin did not appreciate the evidence that so-called free market economic forces could lead to rapid and substantial improvement of standard of living.
Basic innovations have driven human activity since known history even though the phenomenon was detected first in modern Western societies. Second and even more important, all new Kondratieff Waves were vital variations for the societies that adopted the basic innovation. The historic evidence that the innovations could not be developed or diffused in a democratic manner is irrelevant because the history of democracy is not that old.
From the work of Kondratieff after which more economists followed i.e. Joseph Schumpeters work on recognizing the importance of the economic waves published in 1939, we know today that at least the last 5 Kondratieff Cycles from 1800 until today, before the we can determine the 6th Kondratieff, which will offer once again growth and prosperity.
In the past, mankind never developed a basic innovation in order to save himself. While the development of nuclear weapons is an example of man developing a new technology to “save himself,” the technology is only supported and perpetuated through governmental ideology, not natural economic activity.
In other words, we alone have the power to make a change for the better and for those able to understand the concept of the Kondratieff cycles, they will also understand that the time for the 6th Kondratieff cycle is close which will offer the prosperity politicians have been promising but effectively have no control over!